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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from sizzling Dallas yesterday.  It's here.

AUGUST 17,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

SIGN OF THE TIMES – From London's Express:   While Amelia and Oliver were the favourite names nationally, Muhammad topped boys’ names in London.  And when spelling alternatives including Mohammed, Muhamad and Muhammet were combined, the traditionally Muslim name even overhauled Oliver as the national favourite boys’ name.  Coming soon to a registry near you.  But who are we to question?

NEWT SPEAKS – And he's always interesting.  From RealClearPolitics:   Former Speaker of the House and Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich talks to FOX News' Greta van Susteren about the affect of Hillary Clinton's private server controversy on her campaign for the presidency.  Gingrich predicted the former Secretary of State will not be the Democratic nominee and that Republicans "should worry" about Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders instead.  Gingrich said he wouldn't be surprised if Michael Bloomberg, Jerry Brown or Elizabeth Warren jump in the race if it looks like Hillary Clinton will implode.  "If Hillary starts to implode you will see a vacuum that you have not seen in many, many years," he said.  Now that is fascinating stuff.  There was speculation last week that Mayor Mike might jump in.  He, like Trump, could finance his own campaign.  There might be a "Draft Warren" movement.  Brown would be 78.  However, he still seems vigorous.

WALKER FIGHTING – Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin is one of the best potential presidents the GOP has, but he can't seem to catch fire.  Now he's moving to run as an anti-establishment guy.  From The Politico:   As anti-establishment Republicans are gaining traction in the polls, Scott Walker is trying to establish himself as an outsider as well.  In a speech set to deliver in Minnesota on Tuesday, Walker will take on the GOP’s leaders in Congress.  “Republican leaders in Washington told us during the campaign last year that we needed a Republican Senate to repeal Obamacare,” the Wisconsin governor will say, according to excerpts of his remarks released by the campaign. “Well, Republicans have been in charge of both houses of Congress since January and there still isn’t a bill on the president’s desk to repeal Obamacare.”  Walker is a fighter, and an excellent governor.  If he lacks anything, it's a dynamic speaking style, which often doesn't click in the age of TV news.   But don't count him out.  If Trump fades, Walker will be right up there with the leading pack.

August 17, 2015       Permalink

THANK YOU, DEAR LEADER – AT 12:55 P.M. ET:  Iran's big cheese is making it completely clear that Iran is still an enemy of the United States.  We don't even get the courtesy of nice words.   From Reuters: 

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran will remain closed to U.S. influence and continue to oppose U.S. policies in the Middle East after its nuclear deal with big powers, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday, noting either country can still block the accord.

The 76-year-old cleric, Iran's highest authority, has refrained from making decisive statements on the July 14 nuclear agreement, but gave President Hassan Rouhani crucial political cover to pursue talks with the six powers..

Tehran agreed to verifiable limits on its atomic energy program to create confidence that it will not be put to developing nuclear weapons, in exchange for lifting international sanctions crippling its oil-based economy.

"They thought this deal - and it is not clear if it will be passed in Iran or in America - will open up Iran to their influence," Khamenei was quoted on his website as saying at a meeting with members of the Islamic Radio and Television Union.

"We blocked this path and will definitely block it in the future. We won't allow American political, economic or cultural influence in Iran."

COMMENT:  I guess they just don't believe in multiculturalism.  Hey, I wonder what the American multiculturalists in our universities will say about that.  Don't hold your breath.  They won't say a thing.

August 17,  2015     Permalink

PRESIDENT TRUMP? – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:   Is it possible?  Is this the beginning of a beautiful friendship?  There is talk in political circles, talk we haven't heard before.  From Breitbart: 

Bloomberg Politics Managing Editor Mark Halperin stated that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has “reached a turning point” where the “establishment candidates” think he can win Iowa, “most” believe he can win the nomination, and “a significant number think he could win the White House” on Monday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

Halperin was asked about his writing that “Most importantly, we’ve reached a turning point with Trump, the major establishment campaigns of both parties now think Trump could win Iowa, and most of them think he could win the nomination, and a significant number think he could win the White House.” And that the campaigns were in “full freak out mode.”

He said, “Trump may not end up as the nominee, but right now, he’s changed the race, not just leading in the Fox poll, but coming to the fair. I’ve been to the fair with Barack Obama at his peak, Sarah Palin at her peak, with other candidates, George Bush. The reception Trump got here was not just about celebrity. I walked with him for 45 minutes after the helicopter ride, he came to the fair, and people were yelling things to him with passion. ‘Save us,’ ‘You’re the only one who can stop Hillary,’ ‘Thank you for making America great again.’ The other campaigns — the other leading Republican campaigns, monitored Trump’s behavior here. And that was part, along with the Fox poll, and along with the developments of the last couple of weeks, of them saying, as you just quoted, they now believe Trump can win Iowa.”

Host Joe Scarborough then remarked, “that really changes everything in this campaign about how they react to him.” Halperin agreed with this point.

COMMENT:  Well, I have to say that I've been one of those who's believed, and really still does believe, that Trump is going to flame out.  But now maybe it's time for some of us to hedge our bets.

I believe Trump's greatest problem is also his greatest asset – his bull-headed personality.  Now, Churchill had a bull-headed personality, but he knew how to shape it into the weapon of a statesman.  When asked if he were the lion of Britain, he replied that it was the British people who were the lion, and that he simply supplied the roar.  The problem with Trump is that he's all lion, no statesman, and some of the roughness has to be moderated, but not entirely eliminated. 

Trump must realize that the American people have a kind of unspoken standard about the president:  Would I want him, or her, representing my country?  Trump has got to learn to "be" president, while still a campaigner.  It's a tough order.

August 17, 2015       Permalink

ECONOMIC WARNINGS – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  There have been a number of economic warnings recently, lost in the political primary battles and the continuing Hillary soap opera.  From marketwatch.com:

A reading of New York-area manufacturing conditions fell swiftly and brutally in August, one that could make the likelihood of an interest-rate hike next month — or even this year — more remote.

The Empire State general business conditions index nose-dived to a reading of negative 14.9, from positive 3.9 in July, marking the worst level since April 2009, the New York Fed said. The index, on a scale where any positive number indicates improving conditions, was far worse than the positive 4.5 forecast in a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll.

It wasn’t just weakness at the headline. The new-orders component sank to negative 15.7 from negative 3.5, and the shipments index sank to negative 13.8 from positive 7.9.

Readings for unfilled orders, delivery time, inventories and average employee workweek also were negative, and the index for prices received just barely stayed positive at 0.9 from 5.3 in July.

Oddly, perhaps, the index for future business activity climbed seven points to 33.6.

Manufacturers have complained for some time about the strength of the U.S. dollar, and turbulence in China probably isn’t helping matters.

That said, the Empire State index is the first of a wave of regional manufacturing reports, and generally economists pay closer heed to the Philadelphia Fed report, which comes out Thursday.

COMMENT:  It is one indicator.  We might get some good news, as well.  But one thing we can glean from political polls and the volatility within both political parties is that there's substantial discontent among Americans, and much of it stems from economic anxiety.  Yes, jobs are being created, but they're often go-nowhere jobs or jobs that are lower on the scale than the job seekers had before.

In addition, Obama runs an administration, like the Carter administration, that has devastated American morale, and morale is critical to the building of a new economy.  One of the great achievements of Reagan is that he rebuilt American morale and confidence.  Obama doesn't notice stuff like that.

August 17, 2015       Permalink

HEAT ON HILLARY – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  The same sleuths who brought down David Petraeus have been assigned to the Hillary Clinton case.  There's a movie in this.  From Townhall.com:

Hillary Clinton is in trouble. Really big trouble.

According to the Washington Post, the same prosecutor who took down General David Petraeus for improper possession of classified information is now looking into Hillary Clinton's email server. Earlier this week, an intelligence Inspector General revealed Clinton did in fact have at least four pieces of top secret, classified information passed through and stored on her private email server.

"The investigation is being overseen by two veteran prosecutors in the Justice Department’s National Security Division. One of them helped manage the prosecution of David H. Petraeus."

As a reminder, Petraeus plead guilty to misdemeanor charges after keeping physical copies of classified information locked in a desk drawer at his house. He also shared them with his biographer and mistress Paula Broadwell. Prosecutors originally recommended felony charges.

And...

Based on what we know so far, Clinton's possession of top secret, classified information on her personal server is far worse than the Petraeus case. First, the classified information Petraeus had in his possession was classified at a lower level than the information on Clinton's private server, which was classified at the highest level. Second, Petraeus may have shared information with his mistress, but Clinton shared it with enemy hackers and foreign governments.

COMMENT:  This is going to require major sucking up to Obama on Hillary's and Bill's part.  As we've noted, in the real world of politics, it will be Obama who will decide whether his Justice Department will prosecute Hillary, ending her presidential ambitions.

Hmm.  I wonder if the Clintons have anything on Obama.  I mean that.  It's a serious question.  I can foresee the kind of private talks usually reserved for the basements of organized-crime facilities.

August 17,  2015     Permalink

AUGUST 16,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET:

PATHETIC – From The Hill:  The nation’s most powerful symbol of strength and deterrence on the high seas won’t be in the Persian Gulf as much in the near future.   Although the Navy has maintained at least one aircraft carrier in or near the Gulf for the last seven years, it is planning longer periods where there will be no carriers there at all.  The reduced presence is happening as the U.S. prepares to enter into a nuclear deal with Iran. White House and defense officials assure lawmakers, critics, and allies that the military will keep up military pressure on the regime.  In fact, if the nuclear deal makes it past Congress, it could enter into effect during a two-month gap without a carrier in the Persian Gulf. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is scheduled to leave the region sometime in October, and its replacement, the USS Harry S. Truman, won’t arrive there until later in the winter.  What a pathetic way for a superpower to act.  What a signal this sends to our allies.  But it's Obama's dream – a weak United States, stronger Muslim states.  How will we explain this to our children? 

SOCIAL NEWS – From London's Daily Mail:   America's two foremost Democratic families - the Obamas and the Clintons - mingled on Saturday night as politics mixed with summer repose on swanky Martha's Vineyard.  US President Barack Obama, his wife Michelle and their daughters Sasha and Malia, and former president Bill Clinton and his wife, the Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton, were star guests at the 80th birthday party for their mutual friend Vernon Jordan.  So important was the event deemed to be that Hillary broke off from her campaign to fly 1,300 miles from Iowa State Fair, where she had been speaking earlier in the day.   Other guests at the party for civil-rights activist Jordan included Academy Award winner Morgan Freeman, American Express CEO Kenneth Chenault and former Baltimore Orioles player Brian Roberts.  Although the party was private, guests could be heard rocking out to the Bruno Mars and Mark Ronson dance hit Uptown Funk.  Wonder what Hillary felt, in the presence of a president who might have to decide whether to prosecute her or not, or give her a presidential pardon.  I'm sure she smiled and told jokes, and mentioned her love of Africa.

CRIME SOARS IN D.C. – From WaPo:  Authorities are grappling with the District’s escalating homicide count. As of Sunday there were 93 so far this year, a 23 percent increase over the 72 at the same time last year. One challenge for police is that the violence has not been contained to any particular part of the city.  Although some areas that have been persistent pockets of crime continue to see shootings, the uptick in violence also has affected many neighborhoods key to the city’s growth and revitalization. Residents in Northwest are complaining about more gunfire, from Columbia Heights to Petworth, from Park View to Logan Circle.   Amazing.  Everyplace Obama lives becomes a shooting gallery.  Chicago.  Washington.  I have no doubt he'll blame the gun manufacturers, Republicans, and the Israel lobby.  That is, if he can take enough time away from his next party to notice.

August 16, 2015       Permalink

AND NOW FOR SOME COMMON SENSE – AT 2:56 P.M. ET:   Some people who know stuff are finally suggesting that Hillary Clinton is just plain unqualified to be president.  From Daily Caller: 

Hillary Clinton’s email scandal should disqualify her from the Oval Office.

At least so says former CIA operative and CNN national security analyst Bob Baer, who is not known for being a political partisan.

“If this was on her server and it got into her smart phone, there’s a big problem there,” Baer said during an appearance on CNN International Saturday, noting that the sensitivity of the information reportedly found on Clinton’s private server was likely more secret than what Edward Snowden pilfered.

“Seriously, if I had sent a document like this over the open Internet I’d get fired the same day, escorted to the door and gone for good — and probably charged with mishandling classified information,” Baer said.

“If this in fact were on her hand held [phone] — was sent to her or she forwarded it in any way — I wonder whether she is capable of being president,” he added.

Pressed by the host as to whether he really thought this situation was a “deal breaker” for Clinton’s presidential candidacy, Baer said, “As a national security employee, a former one, yes.”

“I can’t tell you how bad this is,” he went on. “A lot of things get talked about, a lot of gossip, but having documents like this sent across the Internet, it could be hacked very easily and probably were hacked, is a transgression that I don’t think the president of the United States should be allowed to, you know, have committed.”

COMMENT:  I'm glad someone said it.  David Petraeus was punished for mishandling classified information.  Why shouldn't Clinton receive the same punishment?

The key question will be whether Obama's Justice Department aids in her downfall, or tries to prevent it, and that will depend on the feelings of the president.

August 16, 2015       Permalink

LATEST POLL – AT 11:48 A.M. ET:  Fox News released this morning its latest presidential poll:

Businessman Donald Trump still leads the field for the Republican nomination. He gets 25 percent among GOP primary voters. He was at 26 percent before the debate. Trump’s support among women went from 24 percent two weeks ago to 21 percent now. He mostly held steady among men (28 percent)...

...Next in the GOP race is Carson, who garners 12 percent. That’s up five percentage points since the debate and puts him in double-digits for the first time since mid-June. Cruz captures 10 percent, up four points.

Bush has dropped to nine percent. That’s down six points -- and puts him in single digits for the first time since April. That’s likely a result of his debate performance, which was judged subpar by those who watched. Bush does well on other measures -- he’s seen as both likeable and qualified.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee held steady at six percent. Walker slips to six percent -- down three points and the lowest support he’s received for more than a year.

Fiorina garners five percent support (+3 points), with Kasich (+1) and Rubio (-1) both at four percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Paul each get three percent. The remaining candidates are at one percent or less.

On the Democratic side, Clinton drops below 50 percent for the first time, while Sanders keeps climbing. She leads among Democratic primary voters by 19 points (49-30 percent). Two weeks ago Clinton was up by 29 points (51-22 percent). A month ago she had a 40-point advantage (59-19 percent).

Vice President Joe Biden, who is undeclared, receives the backing of 10 percent.

COMMENT:  Some pundits are arguing today that Clinton's problems are temporary.  I'm not so sure.  Added to the criminal investigation surrounding her, being conducted by the FBI, is the fact that Clinton is personally unpopular with millions of voters.  The more they see of her, the more they dislike her.

I'm convinced that 2016 can be a Republican year...unless the GOP messes it up, and it is expert at that.

August 16, 2015       Permalink

HILLARY, WE BARELY KNOW YE – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:  The Washington Times is reporting that Hillary Clinton's problem with improper handling of classified information is ballooning:

While media coverage has focused on a half-dozen of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s personal emails containing sensitive intelligence, the total number of her private emails identified by an ongoing State Department review as having contained classified data has ballooned to 60, officials told The Washington Times.

That figure is current through the end of July and is likely to grow as officials wade through a total of 30,000 work-related emails that passed through her personal email server, officials said. The process is expected to take months.

The 60 emails are among those that have been reviewed and cleared for release under the Freedom of Information Act as part of a open-records lawsuit. Some of the emails have multiple redactions for classified information.

Among the first 60 flagged emails, nearly all contained classified secrets at the lowest level of “confidential” and one contained information at the intermediate level of “secret,” officials told the Times.

Those 60 emails do not include two emails identified in recent days by Intelligence Community Inspector General I. Charles McCullough III as containing “top-secret” information possibly derived from Pentagon satellites, drones or intercepts, which is some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets.

And....

As the number of suspect emails grows and the classification review continues, it is clear that predictions contained in a notification Mr. McCullough sent Congress this summer is likely to hold true: Mrs. Clinton’s personal emails likely contained hundreds of disclosures of classified information.

COMMENT:  It is true that "confidential" applies to low-level stuff, but it still denotes classified information, the release of which could be damaging or at least embarrassing to the U.S. government. 

Hillary Clinton's reply to the budding scandal is to shout that she will not make national security into a partisan matter, a thoroughly deceptive, dishonest, and cynical comment typical of the Clintons generally.  It was her behavior, after all, that generated the scandal in the first place.

August 16,  2015     Permalink